by I was recently on a panel discussion for “The Future of the Global Workforce” for the Houston chapter of the World Chamber of Commerce. Because I wanted to talk about the long-term prospects, I positioned my remarks as “a tale of two mismatches:”
- in the short-term, we have shortages of appropriately-skilled workers for available jobs
- in the long-term, we have shortages of appropriate jobs for available workers
Put another way: from not enough workers for jobs to not enough jobs for workers
It’s been interesting to see the “end of work” topic explode over the last year. I’ve contributed to the noise with “jobs as an obsolescent concept.” It’s long been a favorite topic of mine. At Coates & Jarratt, we called it “structural unemployment.” Until recently, I would get the “dazed and confused” and “crazy futurist” look when I talked about it (and sometimes still do). But I/we might proceed with some caution on this message, lest we fall into the “paperless office” trap. Work is not ending anytime soon. Three things seem worth keeping in mind:
- It is going to be a gradual process (so don’t quit your job, and send your kids to school) on the time-scale of a generation
- In a worst-case scenario, policy-makers fight the transition and try to keep the current work model going and the competition for a shrinking job pool gets ugly
- Even in a best-case scenario, it’s not that we stop doing things that were once called work, it’s just that we don’t do them for pay anymore.
The key issue is de-coupling income from jobs. How well we can manage this is the big question. Andy Hines
Darn, I had one foot out the door!
Thanks Dr. Hines!
Joyce