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Oh wow, a definitions discussion … how exciting. Bear with me. I think there is some juicy stuff here! We futurists all know the struggle with different interpretations of key terms. Variety is the spice of life, but it can be a pain when trying to explain our work.
Let’s start with good news. I’m seeing much more interest in “preferred futures.” We’ve been asked to include it in our training at Houston Foresight and in our project work as well. For example, we created a preferred future in our Future of Libraries project for the Seattle Public Library system. It also came up on the After Capitalism research where I focused on the difference between visions, images, and utopias.
I grant you that this definition is not exactly how we thought of it previously. It’s been one of those nagging “doesn’t feel quite right” problems. One thing we started doing several years back is creating a preferred future archetype, which was inspired by the work of Clem Bezold (among others) on aspirational futures. Our Houston Archetype Technique (the HAT), which is derived from the pioneering work of Jim Dator), synthesizes scanning and research into a set of key drivers that in turn are projected into the future using four archetypes or patterns of change. We added the “preferred future” as the fifth archetype.
This approach indeed produces a preferred future scenario. But it is kinda different, right? So, what is different? In our Advanced Strategies class, we have been working on integrating foresight more closely into strategy work. We absolutely believe in the power of foresight, and the power of vision, to guide strategy development. But how to connect? Voila. The preferred future can be thought of as the expression of the vision. What might the vision look like? That’s what scenarios do … they tell us stories about what the future might look like.
Are you seeing this growing interest in preferred futures ? Love to hear your stories on that. – Andy Hines
On definitions, you do you know about FUTURES 20.0? https://www.millennium-project.org/futures-2-0-world-foresight-encyclopedic-dictionary/ the guy to update the MP website certificate is on vacation for another few days, but the site is 100% ok, just click on Advanced and then click on our website to set FUTURES 20.0. it is is both English and Spanish so far.
Yes there is much more conversation about the preferred future. The important part, in my view, is to ensure multiple futures are considered first. I see some people moviing quickly to a preferred future thinking as a strategic planner. Withhout the wider conversations first it is easy then to stay in one futures lane. The richness of diverse views and the conversations seeking to understand and to consider assumptions and world views is critical to minimise entrapment into an extrapolated future. Does the preferred future reflect dominant narrative? Whose voices are heard?
That’s a nice addition! I haven’t seen it as dominant, at least yet, but higher profile in the futures conversation.