More from our “Mapping Archetype Scenarios Across the Three Horizons” research. Today, we look at how to apply it. …
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Why Futurists Fail … in their forecasts
Last week we talked about some typical resistances to information about change we see on the client or public side. Lest …
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History is vital to the future
I just finished Wilkinson and Kupers’ very nice “The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience,” which …
Scenarios start now
Sometimes those new to foresight get the impression that when we create 10-year scenarios, we are somehow just talking …
The typical three month foresight project
In our teaching as well as in our project work, we talk about the “typical” 3-month project. We joke that there is no …
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Futures Chain of Custody
There is no proof in the futures business! [This includes the sexy "future-proofing" concept making the rounds - not …
Evolution of Framework Foresight Part 5 Archetypes
Let me begin with proper credit to Professor Jim Dator for the concept [Jim Dator, Alternative Futures at the Manoa …
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Evolution of Framework Foresight: Drivers (part 4)
The graphic has the drivers in the rectangles. This is from a project on the future of knowledge work we did about ten …
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Evolution of Framework Foresight, Part 3
Last time we talked about the different approaches we used to develop inputs to create the ingredients for the baseline …
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State of foresight professionalization
I was recently asked about the state of professionalizing, and realized it has been a while since I has reflected on it. …
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The Future and Reality
The Houston Foresight Program’s Alternative Perspectives class opens with a week on the nature of reality. Each week …
Differentiating new equilibrium from the baseline
We’ve had some fun with archetypes before. Time again! A fun aspect of the foresight community is that futurists are …
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Designing Foresight and Foresighting Design
I’m happy to share that my collaboration with [former] design student (and now Dr.) Danilo Zindato exploring the uses of …
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Historians & Futurists: More Alike than Not
A few weeks ago, we explored a few thoughts around the history of the foresight field. APF colleague Ruben Nelson …
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Transformative scenario planning
I finally got to Transformative Scenario Planning by Adam Kahane. It’s one of those books that stayed too long in my …
The Aspirational Archetype
I’ve written previously about the scenario archetype technique. A few years ago, In World Futures class, we started …
Doing foresight well: cooks and chefs
Was musing with a professional futurist colleague about the state of the foresight field. We observed how the market for …
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Exploratory and decision scenarios
Another theme that’s been popping up lately in my work is Pierre Wack’s original notion suggested that exploratory …
Scenario confusions
Been having some interesting discussions about scenarios lately and think we might have a few blog posts brewing here. …
Real options, scenarios, & sensemaking
Read an interesting piece on combining scenario planning and real options: “Making sense of future uncertainties using …
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Futurevision a welcome addition to the foresight catalog
I am very pleased to recommend Futurevision: Scenarios for the World in 2040 by Richard Watson and Oliver Freeman as an …
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Fun with scenario archetypes
I have been messing around with and shared some actual work on using scenario archetypes. Let me begin with proper …
Concluding the Future of Knowledge Work
Knowledge work is emerging as the central focus of developed economies, with emerging markets making forays into it as …
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APF Most Significant Futures Work Nomination: Aspirational Futures
I am very pleased to have nominated “Aspirational Futures” by Clem Bezold for an APF Most Significant Futures Work …
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Futures of futures scenarios and professionalization
The APF's “Futures of Futures” scenario workshop in 2003 identified four critical uncertainties for the future of the …
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Future of Knowledge Work
I have a new article that I put together with my frequent collaborator Chris Carbone of Innovaro on the Future of …
The Future of Credit Unions: Four Scenarios
It's nice to seen that the good folks at Filene Research Institute, a think tank for the credit union industry, has made …
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Foresight and the Clash of the Timeframes
In this morning’s New York Times, I came across three stories relating to the future and the public sector. The story …
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A Step Forward in Evaluating Scenarios
Nice to be back in the saddle after a spectacular honeymoon in beautiful St. Thomas. Hopped right over to Brussels …
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