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Sometimes those new to foresight get the impression that when we create 10-year scenarios, we are somehow just talking about year 10. The scenarios don’t exist until then. It is easy to see why, since we most often describe the end point because we want to convey a view of how the future could be different. We typically describe the pathway to the scenarios, but perhaps we create impression that the pathway is not part of the scenario, but a bridge to the scenario. Let’s correct that. The point of this post is to say when we create scenarios they start right now. We are talking about a future possibility beginning right in this moment and extending out however many years. To some degree, even if it is really small, we are already on the path to transformation. Right now!
But clearly we are more “in” some scenarios more than others over time. The graphic shows all archetypes (see Houston Archetype Technique for a refresher) in Horizon 1, with the baseline most prominent. As the baseline declines, either Collapse or New Equilibrium become more prominent in H2. And as they eventually decline, Transformation arrives in H3. It makes intuitive sense. We are currently researching historical scenario sets to see if this pattern does indeed play out this way. We’ll keep you posted. – Andy Hines
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