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I am so happy to be able to provide free access to our just published article in Futures: Mapping archetype scenarios across the three horizons. Futures has created a Share Link providing 50 days’ free access to the article, which you are welcome to read or download. No sign up, registration or fees are required: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1jMPT3jdJop3o
It was a pretty big research endeavor, that required pulling together a big team from the University of Houston Foresight program: I led the effort, assisted by Adjunct Faculty Adam Cowart, former Research Director Laura Schlehuber, and former students now alums Denise Worrell, Lavonne Leong, and Heather Benoit. You may have rightly surmised that a chunk of time has passed from when we began to publication!
Here’s the short story (I’ll write more next week). We kept noticing in our scenario work that when we used archetypes, the research team and the clients naturally aligned the archetypes in the same horizons: the Baseline in H1, Collapse or New Equilibrium in H2, and Transformation in H3. The figure below conveys that all archetypes exist to some degree in all horizons, but there is typically a dominant archetype in each.
We used this arrangement as a starting point for thinking about how a domain changes over time. It is certainly not a straight linear progression — we found loops, detours, and iterations – but over a long enough period of time the overall flow holds up pretty well. So, in this article we report on the investigative research we carried out to support this finding.
I am so proud of this team. It took a lot of work, and indeed the reviewers sent us back to the drawing board more than once, but the end product really looks nice to me – admittedly a biased view! Andy Hines
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