Lets Get Loopy

A few months ago I shared some research that explored pathways to transformation and asked y’all to speculate on whether the more common pathway was Collapse and New Equilibrium. I confessed that the study team guessed Collapse and the actual research found that New Equilibrium (NE) was the more common route. Let’s take a closer look at this pathway.

As you may have already deduced from the title, the NE pathway to Transformation is not a straight line. This is hardly news to futurists, as we know that linear change is relatively rare. The loop pattern is interesting. Quick refresher: we examined 78 historical scenario sets fitted to archetypes and mapped on to the three horizons:

• Baseline – Horizon 1 current system
• Collapse and New Equilibrium – Horizon 2 transitions
• Transformation  — Horizon 3 new system

There were six (of the 78) scenario sets that followed the Baseline to NE to Transformation [NOTE:  some of the scenarios sets were relatively new and hadn’t reached their projected timeframe yet … thus the relatively small numbers making it to Transformation]. Of these six, a preliminary analysis suggested there were starts-and-stops in the NE transition phase. We are investigating this pattern in follow-up research, but it’s fair to say the looping seems to represent “missing” elements in the transformation that sets it back – in effect to try again. For instance, one might say that EVs are running into a missing element of “lack of infrastructure,” and thus may stall out for some time. It could be that a technology is not quite ready? Or social acceptance is not quite there? Something is missing that stalls out the progress.

This looping idea has useful implications as we think about the pathway to After Capitalism. I’ve noted that I fear a Collapse of capitalism potentially being too soon, before we have enough of a sense of a viable alternative. The looping pathway can prepare us in advance to first of all recognize it will be not be a smooth ride, but an iterative one. We can expect progress, stalls, and even occasional backslides. We can know that this isn’t fatal or evidence of failure, but the normal path. It reminds me of innovation work in which we know that a really novel concept never makes it the first time. It has to go back to the drawing board, morph, and try again. If we can accept that from the outset, and have a mindset that sees fails or setbacks as learning opportunities, we can stay patient on the NE pathway. In a nutshell, it’s okay to be loopy. – Andy Hines