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The Shift Commission released a nice report on the future of work looking ahead 10-20 years. Four almost-inevitable forces (predetermineds in our parlance):
- An aging workforce;
- The decline of “dynamism,” the movement of people between jobs, firms, and places;
- A societal shift to non-work income
- Growing geographic gaps
#2 raised my eyebrow. I might put that in the uncertainty pile. They say: “the decades-long fall in the rates at which Americans start businesses, switch jobs, or move for a new job. It’s unclear whether the culprit is high housing costs in areas with expanding growth, regulatory burdens like occupational licensing requirements that vary across state lines, or that caregiving needs and a sense of community connectedness make people reluctant to leave.” Interesting, but not sure I’m persuaded yet.
The scenarios focused on two uncertainties — whether there would be more or less work in the future and whether work would remain as mostly jobs or shift to more task-based work (everything from short-term full-time contracts, to projects, to “gig economy” roles).
The jobs/tasks focus is an interesting way to think about it. What about automation? “We believe today’s progress in AI is consequential enough to prompt careful consideration of whether this time is different. (We asked our members this question, and 58% agree this time is different.)”
Among the conclusions I found interesting:
- Each of the four scenarios could work out well, or badly, depending on how we respond. (AH: If ever there was an issue to be proactive on…..)
- For workers, it’s about stability (AH: amidst the chaos of change, we ultimately seek stability – not the assumption undergirding America today, but…)
- Employers central role in society needs re-examination (AH: haven’t seen this explicitly stated as such; now there’s a myth-metaphor not easily challenged!)
Two curious things:
- Guaranteed basic income was not in any of the 4 scenarios. It was mentioned as a response to the scenarios. It’s been front-and-center in most work I’ve been looking at. I guess I would view these scenarios as more about the transition to “After Capitalism” than the vision.
- They focused on stability as a key desire, but the data they report actually showed that “enjoying work” was a higher priority, which fits with what I’ve seen.
My favorite quote of 2017 so far: “The whole concept of a 9 to 5 job for life was a historical quirk.”
Susan Lund, McKinsey & Company and McKinsey Global Institute. Right!!! Again, we keep returning to the power of the prevailing paradigm. It seems like it’s always been this way, but it hasn’t been. – Andy Hines
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