Introducing TIPPOs: Trends, Issues, Plans, Projections and Obstacles

We at Houston Foresight are always tweaking our core Framework Foresight process. The short version of the process is the first 3 steps map the future and second 3 are about influencing the future. We have seen much more client emphasis on the influencing piece, basically in the form of “what should we do?” We know that the quality of the recommendations for “what should we do” depends on how well you’ve mapped the future.

Let’s go over an example of how to strengthen the connection between the mapping and influencing. We describe a two-fold research path. The first path, scanning, is the broad search for any type of potentially useful signal of change (based on a domain map and STEEP). The second path, inputs, is a search for specific types of information about the future. We have experimented with various types of categories over the years, but for maybe the last 5 or so, we’ve used TIPPs.  

• Trends: Changes already happening (increasing, decreasing, or staying the same).
• Issues: Conflicts, controversies, or choices that need to be addressed. These can be both current and emerging.
• Plans: What have stakeholders announced that they intend to do?
• Projections: What are neutral third-party forecasts of the domain or parts of the domain?

And now, drum roll please, we add Obstacles and thus we have TIPPOs, and of course the TIPPO Hippo.

• Obstacles: Current or emerging obstacles that may hold back change in the domain.

This addition is a direct result of some client work where they were really struggling with “what should we do.” We provided pretty clear recommendations but were getting the “Yes, buts…”. There were very real obstacles, no doubt, but they were also quite addressable in our view. Nonetheless, they seemed to have a paralyzing effect. So we thought, what if we introduced potential obstacles earlier in the process and got the wheels turning about how to address them sooner.

I will note that we like simplicity and small numbers of categories (another client complaint is “too complicated” – we’ve all heard that I think). The argument against adding the category was that obstacles should naturally arise from the existing categories. Yes but (haha) why not try calling it out explicitly? So, we’re running the experiment. Will the TIPPO Hippo  make it? Stay tuned – Andy Hines