Election “day after” student observations

We had Futures Research class about 24 hours after the elections results started coming in. We discussed some current feelings and observations and then I asked each student to share their observations about the future relating to the election aftermath (note: the “winner” was still in doubt).

The Long view

This too shall pass. As futurists we must always remind ourselves that the pressing urgent problems of today will be memories ten or twenty years into the future. As crazy as things may seem in the present, we’ll get through it one way or another (which doesn’t necessarily mean a happy story, but a different one).

[some] cautions optimism. The pendulum could swing back to a more civil discourse; though one suggested it’s heading toward “burning it to the ground.”

Challenges

Extreme voices and positions get noticed. It is increasingly difficult for balanced rational views to get heard.

Distrust: The divide is increasingly urban-rural.

Silos: Increasingly, different “tribes” are not mixing. The urban stay urban and the rural stay rural. How can we get the silos together?

What can I do? Focus on what our contribution to making things better (in my case, I consider developing positive images of the future via the After Capitalism work).

Shifts?

Okay to talk politics again? Emily Post’s “Etiquette” offers the sage advice to avoid discussing politics in polite society. It is increasingly risky to talk politics in a mixed group. But maybe that’s not such a good thing. Can we learn to talk about difficult topics with one another in a civil manner?

Third party? I shared my story of doing a forecast in the last 1980s of the Libertarians emerging as a solid third party (oops). Is the timing right now? Something like the Bernie coalition?

Social media backlash? Will there be a social media backlash, where increasing numbers of people simply get off it (already happening to a small degree).

Foresight can help

Spiral dynamics as a tool for understanding the dynamics: red vs the mean green meme.

CLA can be used to help get at assumptions.

Transformative scenario planning as described by Adam Kahane seems perfect, as it is designed for situations where “people see the situation they are in as unacceptable, unstable, or unsustainable and the only way out is by working with a group that is representative of the whole system.”

Many thanks to the students for letting me share this! — Andy Hines