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Was musing with a professional futurist colleague about the state of the foresight field. We observed how the market for selling pure content about the future has become increasingly commodified. The good old days of selling trends reports are receding from memory. And even scenarios are feeling the impact. It reminded me of a colleague who a few years ago suggested that the work we were currently doing would be gone in ten years. A provocative statement, but certainly looks true for at least some of the work we’re doing, particularly on the content side.
We were chatting with someone not in the field asking us questions about it, and we noted on commodification that it is pretty easy for anyone to get into the field. A search of futurist on Google routinely turns up over 5.5 million hits. A search of futurist on Linked In turns up almost 7,000 hits. There are lots more people calling themselves futurists and doing foresight well. It suggests we professional futurists are going to have think harder about how to differentiate ourselves. And many have and are doing so, particularly on the process side. But to stay with the content theme – how can we differentiate there?
Thus, my thought of “doing foresight well.” A common theme that comes up in teaching foresight is the difference between cooks and chefs. The basic tools of producing foresight content are relatively easy to use. Any can cook a future. But not anyone can be a chef. So what makes a foresight chef? I want to think more on this, but for now, a starter proposition is having a deep understanding of why we are doing what we are doing. It’s not just following the recipe, but knowing why and when to adjust it, or add a new ingredient, or try a new combination. This is where boring old theory comes in. It’s crucial that our methods are informed by theory – so we know why we are doing what we are doing, and can make the adjustments, evaluations, and add the “special sauce” that makes an ordinary dish special.
We need cooks and chefs (not one or the other). There’s more to say on this, for sure, so we’ll come back to it later. Andy Hines
I love the analogy. And perhaps the key ingredient (pun intended) is creativity. Cooks follow recipes. Chefs create them.
Yes, we need cooks who can take a great recipe and replicate it over and over. But its easy to see how cooks can be replaced by robots.
But until the Singularity is upon us, the chefs job will be secure because they don’t just cook food, they create it, embellish it, and present it in a way that makes it look special.
Perhaps the same can be said for “doing foresight well.” It requires good methodology, but also the ability to see beyond the “recipe” and to inspire people to actually eat it (do something about it).