by Changing sense of place is a potential emerging discontinuity I’ve been using with groups lately. On the predetermined-uncertainty continuum, it is closer to predetermined. And I suppose one could argue that it’s always going on to some degree. So let’s look at what’s different.
A massive driver is growing virtualization. The latest estimates I’ve seen is that around 40% of the workforce does some form of distributed work. (On a side note, back in the 1990s, we estimated about 40% by 2020, which I felt was way too conservative….guess I needed to cool my jets). I am still amazed at how many knowledge workers are still going into the office 9 to 5 Monday thru Friday. Seems like a time warp almost. Made me think of this play on the famous Gibson quote:
The big deal here is figuring out the new mix of what needs to be physical and what is virtual, and well, how hybrid plays a role. I’ve had some direct experience. I worked with Social Technologies as a consulting futurist primarily leading the single-client projects for five years. The company was based in Washington DC and I lived in Houston (so I could teach on the side in the Foresight program). I found that I had to go to DC much less than I expected, and I’ve heard similar things from others who’ve had this kind of arrangement. And the tools for doing this kind of virtual work keep getting better!
The other direct experience I’ve had is teaching in the Foresight program. Peter Bishop pioneered the fully online/hybrid curriculum about 15 or so years ago, that is, we still have a physical class at night, but you can attend physically, virtually, or view a recording of it later at your convenience. All the work is done via online platforms. I remember some of the early days when we were using Skype to remote people in – yikes! We’ve probably gone through a half-dozen technical schemes since then. Overall, they keep improving. The interesting part is that students have been voting with their feet, almost in lockstep with the technology. As the technology has improved, virtual class attendance has increased, or for the half-empty folks, physical class attendance has steadily declined. About five years ago, we crossed the Rubicon of virtual becoming the majority, and now it dominates. Yes, universities keep building classrooms…..see quote above, the past is still here….
Rethinking the mix is a key strategic issue. It’s particularly timely if you’re thinking about a facility upgrade. If you do the thought experiment and play virtualization out fully, why even build a facility? It’s an experiment, of course, and the reality is people like to be together. And I would argue f2f is even more important in our virtualizing world. Hmmm, tricky isn’t it.
I am going to break this theme up into chunks. Too much juicy stuff here for one [overly long] post. — Andy Hines
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