Capitalism: Resurgence or Beginning of the End?

Or both? Populism is in full force and [mostly] promising a return to the good old days of market capitalism, sans regulations or other pesky interventions. [NOTE: See Polanyi’s Great Transformation, which argues that there never was a pure market capitalism]

For After Capitalism, this certainly seems like bad news and a step backward. It is understandable if you feel disappointed if not depressed. But hold on … Chin up. It may not be as bad as it seems! One scenario suggests that while there will undoubtedly be a short-term reversal on the path toward After Capitalism, it might actually be good news for the long term.

In the figure below, the black lines are the typical depiction of an H1 to H3 transformation. The lines in red represent our little scenario. The Neoliberal Capitalist Baseline in red actually resurges a bit, lasts and lasts a little longer, but then experiences a precipitous decline. The red lines of Transformational Guiding Images of Horizon 3 stagnate in the short term, but take-off on a much steeper slope as the Baseline declines.

The populists will do what they can to remove the constraints or take off the guardrails of capitalism and rely on the free market. It is quite plausible that this naked capitalism will actually accelerate its decline. The key assumption is that capitalism is currently on a decline trajectory. Restraints on capitalism, one could argue, are extending its life. Reforms blunt the rough edges and help make it more palatable. They extend its life. Moving toward more pure market capitalism will highlight its contradictions and problems, The increasingly desperate search for new things to commodify, new ways to create scarcity, and efforts to squeeze more value, will stimulate a search for alternatives. Crashing the economy, alas, could ignite the search for alternatives.

Again, this is a scenario (not a prediction). It gives us hope. Difficult times — I’ve always felt – are the best time to get to work and build the foundation for when the sun starts to shine again. There nothing else to do, so let’s get to work and start building the future we want – we will survive to fight another day. – Andy Hines

About Andy Hines

Dr. Andy Hines is Program Coordinator at the University of Houston’s Graduate Program in Foresight, bringing together the experience he earned as an organizational, consulting, and academic futurist. He is also speaking, workshopping, and consulting through his firm Hinesight.

Before that, he was Managing Director of Social Technologies/Innovaro, and served as an Adjunct Professor with the university since 2004. Hines enjoyed earlier careers as a consulting and organizational futurist. He was a partner with Coates & Jarratt, Inc., a think tank and consulting firm that specialized in the study of the future. He was also Futurist & Senior Ideation Leader at Dow Chemical with a mission of using futures tools and knowledge to turn ideas into new business opportunities. Before that, Hines established and ran the Global Trends Program for the Kellogg Company.

Hines is motivated by a professional hunger to make foresight practical and useful, and he believes that foresight can help deliver the insight that is so needed in today’s organizations and the world. His goal, he says, is to infect as many change agents as possible with this message. Thus, he has honed a skill set designed to make foresight more actionable in organizations.

In this pursuit, he has authored five books: Teaching about the Future: The Basics of Foresight Education (Palgrave Macmillan, 2012); ConsumerShift: How Changing Values Are Reshaping the Consumer Landscape (No Limits Publishing, 2011); Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight (Social Technologies, 2007); 2025: Science and Technology Reshapes US and Global Society (Oak Hill, 1997); and Managing Your Future as an Association (ASAE, 1994) and has another in the hands of publishers: Teaching about the Future: The Basics of Foresight Education. He has also authored dozens of articles, speeches, and workshops, including the 2003 Emerald Literati Awards’ Outstanding Paper accolade for best article published in Foresight for “An Audit for Organizational Futurists” and the 2008 award for “Scenarios: The State of the Art.” He has appeared on several radio and television programs, PBS Houston, KRIV-26 News, and the CBS “Early Show.” He also co-founded and is former Chair of the Association of Professional Futurists.

About Andy Hines

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply