A system for scanning and monitoring

If you ask a group of futurists about the most fundamental skill for being a futurist, horizon scanning would probably be #1 or close to it. Identifying signals of change is an essential aspect of foresight work. Over the years, I have either done scanning for clients or occasionally helped them set up their own scanning systems.

But what about monitoring??? We have tried. And mostly … failed.

Let’s first be clear about what I mean by a “scanning and monitoring” approach. Together. Here’s the logic. A key deliverable of a scanning system is to identify emerging issues (issues framed very broadly as threats, opportunities, drivers, disruptions). Let’s say we identify 6-12 emerging issues in a year worthy of some attention. We can and should devise action options, but in many cases we need to “monitor” an issue that isn’t quite ripe for attention yet. What happens most of the time is that it simply falls off the map. We move on to scanning for the next set of issues. Or if it’s project-based work, the team goes back to their day job.

What if, however, we set up a simple system for tracking the emerging issues we identified? We set up such a system with our friends at the US Forest Service a few years back. They have been talking about their work with the larger forest community, which has generated interest. This led to an opportunity for me share to share our work with CERM (Catskill Environmental Research & Monitoring Conference). The conference theme was ‘What could the Catskills look like in 50 years?’ Most of the presentation before me were very technical – these were in-the-field foresters! I was worried, frankly, that my pitch A system for scanning and monitoring the future of forests would be seen as impractical. To my surprise, they really liked it. They were engaged, we had fun with it, and they got the idea.

The key point is that there is a way to tack on a monitoring supplement to the horizon scanning system that is not too onerous in terms of time, and can be folded into existing scanning work. This first step is to ingrain the habit of continuous monitoring. There will be more to come, like how and when to spring into action when there is movement into an issue. I get asked about what’s a next development or next big thing in futures. At the top of my list is that we get much better at monitoring, wait … scanning AND monitoring. – Andy Hines