Ten Books for Prospective Futurists, Updated

It’s time to update my list of ten books that a prospective futurist should read. The principle is the individual is starting from a tabula rasa (limited or no previous exposure). It’s hard to do, so and I cheated a little bit, by offering other suggestions and grouping them under loose categories or types. The seven new entries are in italics. What might you add or subtract?

1. Introductory Overviews

• Ed Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, World Future Society, 2003
  • A journalistic description of the field by the founder of the World Future Society that updated his classic 1977 Study of the Future

• John Smart, Introduction to Foresight, Book 1 of the Foresight Guide, 2021.
  • Best described as an almanac or reference guide on the future that has tons of useful info about what is happening in the contemporary world of foresight.

2. Conceptual deep dives

• Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture, Basic Books, 1967.
  • Classic on how ideas about what may happen in the future as a means of deciding what actions to take in the present

• Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era: History, Purposes, and Knowledge, Vol. 1, Transaction, 1996.
  • Scholarly description of the emergence of futures studies (foresight). Volume I is more relevant.

3. Classics

• Fred Polak, The Image of the Future, Elsevier, 1973. (my favorite)
  • The role of images of the future throughout history and in the present

• Alvin Toffler, Future Shock, 1984
  • One of the most influential books ever written on the future. It argued that the pace of change was outstripping human capacity to deal with it.

• Aldous Huxley, Brave New World, Harper & Row, 1933
  • A dystopian novel of genetic engineering and pharmaceuticals

4. Applications

• Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Doubleday, 1996.
  • Business book with lots of stories how scenarios impact organizations.
• Don Beck & Christopher Cowan, Spiral Dynamics: Mastering Values, Leadership, and Change, Blackwell, 1996.
  • A development theory of individual and social change based on values/worldviews.

5. How-to

• Andy Hines, & Peter Bishop, Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, 2^nd edition, Hinesight, 2015.

• • Guidelines on how to do strategic foresight from leading practitioners
•  Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transformation, Tamsui and Taipei, Tamkang University, 2005
  • Both a practical guide and a theoretical introduction by one of the best in the business.

6. Science Fiction

• William Gibson, Neuromancer, Ace Books, 1984.

• • Pioneering cyberpunk novel

• Kim Stanley Robinson, Red Mars, Spectra, 1993

• • Story on the founding a colony on Mars (best of the trilogy)

• Doctorow, Cory. 2017. Walkaway: A Novel. NY: Tor Books.

• • Fascinating tale of how we move on from capitalism by walking away from it.

• Iain Banks’ Culture novels

• • Space operas in distance future w/ thoughtful treatments of advanced AI

7. Tech-driven future

• Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking 2005.

• • How exponential growth in information technology is leading us toward a “singularity” in which life as we know it is unrecognizable on the other side
• Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford, UK: Oxford U Press, 2014.
  • One of the most (if not the most) balanced and best treatments of AI.

8. Environment-driven future

• Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers, The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Publications, 1972.

• • Classic projection of exceeding planetary capacity derived from a systems model
  • See also the 20- and 30-year updates confirming initial model

9. Economic-driven future

• Piketty, Thomas. 2014. Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press.
  • A history and current assessment that suggests that left to its own devices, capitalism will tend toward inequality.

10. Compilations

• Slaughter, R. (Ed.) & Hines, A. (Assoc. Ed.) (2020). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 2020. Association of Professional Futurists.
  • This successor to the KBFS 2005 Professional Edition brings together a sampler of the best works in the field over the last fifteen years.
    

— Andy Hines