by I had a nice conversation with some colleagues on a private listserve on the role of futurists. One camp suggested that foresight had “erroneously shifted focus toward actual decision making which of course is not within our ambit. Instead we seek to influence through broadcasting and communicating the images of the future we create.” I gently countered that I think we should do both: help craft images and help make decisions. For me, it’s not either or.
I sorta addressed this point in my “Let’s Talk about Success: A Proposed Foresight Outcomes Framework for Organizational Futurists.” In that I suggested our primary value is in “learning/mapping futures” (aka images), a secondary value was “deciding/influencing futures” (aka decision-making) and a tertiary value in acting (aka prototypes). Specifically, I think we are more differentiated in mapping images, and less so in influencing decisions. But I also noted that we add value in connecting images to decision-making (which is no small task).
I understand the argument that we should stick with where we bring more value – crafting images. But my experience is that it is very difficult for people to connect them to decision-making, and thus I think the field should (and has) moved in this direction. Just crafting images, it seems to me, is a recipe for irrelevance. I believe we need to connect our work to decision-making if we are going to be useful. What do you think? – Andy Hines
Decision makers appreciate insightful input by minds that can connect insight and decisions. Futurists value add will be appreciated more when futures work can be connected and influence decision making. I agree with your view, Andy.
appreciate the support!
Andy, totally agree! Especially that they are not mutually exclusive, I have emphasized the resiliency benefit in crafting those future images, which ultimately should result in better informed decisions .
you’re doing it in practice — thanks for sharing that!
Andy,
I fully agree with you. I’ve been doing research in risk assessment based upon strategic planning. The goal is to empower decision making. Don’t you think that thanks to the advent of predictive/prescriptive analytics, scenario generation is increasingly becoming more scientific and less emotional (even if at the end, emotion is needed to refine the process)?