by I recently had the opportunity to spend a morning talking about the future of science and technology with some exchange students from China. I had them review some of the forecasts that my colleagues and I made in 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society as Reshaped by Science and Technology that we wrote back in 1995, and I revisited last year in a piece “How Accurate Are Your Forecasts?” I noticed that they seemed to believe some of the developments I saw as breaking closer to 2025 were “already here.” Perhaps the optimism of students (or the pessimism of the professor) or perhaps the achievement orientation in China that is bullish on science and technology?
Another interesting aspect of the morning was their ranking of six proposed wildcards (low-probability, high-impact events) in terms of which seemed the most likely to occur, relatively speaking. They were given 100 poker chips to “bet” with. Here’s how the rankings turned out:
-
Super-Longevity. Average age could increase to 100….or beyond (385 )
Self-Assembling Nanotech. Could revolutionize manufacturing…..among other areas (313 )
The Singularity. Machine intelligence exceeds biological intelligence by about 2045 (237)
Global Pandemic. The world is overdue for a global pandemic, potentially coming from viruses (due to increased global travel) or the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, among others (225 )
Brain Enhancement. Advances in brain science could enable a wide range of new applications, from implants to mind reading to downloading consciousness. (155 )
Ecosystem Collapse. Many argue that humanity is using up resources faster than they can be replenished, presaging a “collapse.” (150 )
Pretty strong belief in the stretching life expectancy and in the prospects for nanotech — interestingly, both of these views were mirrored in my undergrad class of UH students. — Andy Hines
Hey thanks for this funny and good post. But I still don’t get the last part though! – Bosal exhaust
I wanted to thank you for this great read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post.
Thanks — my goal is write as regularly as possible.
You have really helped me out…. thanks!
I have been following comments. I perpetually find you articles revealing.
Resources like the one you mentioned here will be very usable to me! I will post a connection to this page on my web log. I am positive my visitors will find that very useable.
All the things you stated is correct, but a lot of upsides. Like, ready to’t be fired.
my sentiments and I will instantly snatch your rss feed to be updated on any upcoming content you may publish,I am really fan of your post!
This recorded a piece of me! Eagle Air is a novice looking to be free to stroll all the exhibitions “Life is to learn not to get …”I like this sentence, very healthy outlook on life: You do not get a satisfactory cause; is learned How closer to happiness. You do not get the victory; is to learn how to avoid failure. You do not get the final result you want; that things will not be satisfactory to learn …
I like the valuable info you provide in your articles. I will bookmark your weblog and check again here regularly. I am quite certain I’ll learn plenty of new stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!
Hi there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it is truly informative. I’m going to watch out for brussels. I will be grateful if you continue this in future. Lots of people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!
Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wished to say that I’ve really enjoyed browsing your blog posts. After all I’ll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again very soon!
Hello, I don’t more often than not release feedback on blogs, as I wish to learn only. But I find the article that you’ve written earlier has very insightful facts and I uncover it to be very useful. Thank you for taking the time to upload this.
Hello there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it is truly informative. I am going to watch out for brussels. I will appreciate if you continue this in future. A lot of people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!
*Hello! I just would like to give a huge thumbs up for the great info you have here on this post. I will be coming back to your blog for more soon.
Thanks for this info. Looking forward to next one.
I have to show my appreciation to the writer for rescuing me from such a scenario. After browsing through the search engines and seeing things which were not powerful, I believed my entire life was gone. Existing minus the answers to the difficulties you have solved by way of your main short article is a crucial case, as well as ones that would have negatively affected my career if I hadn’t come across your web page. The ability and kindness in dealing with every part was useful. I am not sure what I would’ve done if I hadn’t come across such a stuff like this. It’s possible to at this time look forward to my future. Thanks a lot very much for your impressive and effective guide. I won’t be reluctant to endorse your web page to any person who wants and needs direction about this subject matter.
I needed to post you this little bit of note to finally thank you over again regarding the nice views you’ve contributed on this website. It is simply extremely generous with you to deliver unhampered what exactly most people could have made available as an e book to help make some cash for themselves, particularly since you might well have done it if you wanted. These tactics additionally worked to become a fantastic way to recognize that most people have a similar interest the same as my very own to learn many more regarding this problem. I know there are thousands of more enjoyable occasions ahead for individuals that check out your blog post.
Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I’ve truly enjoyed surfing around your blog posts. In any case I’ll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again very soon!